2010, year of no expectations

2008-09 was a year of hope for me. The election of Obama, Australia and US's cap-and-trade, and of course Copenhagen. For a new-entrant into the carbon/clean tech space, it was a period of endless excitement, optimism and enthusiasm.

As time rolled by, I feel like I've been duped. Or rather, I was just a baby re-learning what old veterans had already experienced. What I thought were giants tsunamis that were about to sweep through the shore were in fact just gentle waves, nothing special. These days, when I hear about new carbon legislation proposals, UNFCCC meetings, carbon projects and so forth, I think about how unlikely it will reach its stated objectives, the political barriers forthcoming, and the negligible impact it will incur in any event. In other words, I'm pretty much jaded.

I spend more of my time these days following business and financial news, the electronics industry and the energy industry in general.

I guess the biggest news for me this month has been the release of Google's Nexus One, Lenovo's sleek and potentially game chaning hybrid slate/netbook, GM's release of the Chevy Volt, and Google's threat to unfilter its content in China and its threat to leave operations there.

As for the carbon world, the British government's decision to license out rights to build 6000 offshore wind turbines stands out. The problem is, apart from the unprecedented engineering challenge ahead, this will turn out to be probably the biggest outsourcing exercise the world has seen. Although some of the winning contractors are British utlities, I envision all of the components and logistics will be produced and serviced by German and Scandanavian companies. There are only 2 manufacturers of offshore wind turbines in the world and they are both German. I just don't see how to British will make any inroads in terms of manufacturing and logistics support. I do see them providing "advice" and "consultancy", consisting of reports hoping for others to do something, as well as fitting a large chunk of the cash, probably a large portion through the taxpayer.

In the world of CDM, no real news since the controversial rejection of the Chinese wind farms. The market has pretty much stalled, with EUA prices hovering around the 12 euro mark not helping either. At this rate Kyoto will be dead by 2012, which means that demand will probably only come from the EU ETS post 2012. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but huge risks still remain. Recently, Poland successfully won a case against the EU's imposition of a hard cap on its industries. Whether the EU will buckle down and enforce auctioning of permits is going to be a highly politically sensitive hurdle.

Job wise, things are going ok. Although I know I can be more efficient, creative and think outside the box more. A lot of it is about putting myself in the mind frame that I'm in fact the entrprenuer running the joint, the big decisions are mine, what would I do? And also, putting myself as the final client and customer, and what would they think if they read my work? Suddenly, there is more cutting edge to my work.

On the kendo front, I am going to grade for Nidan in Ireland this February. Am feeling confident. Will pull through. It's made me more keen to go to trainings, and has really focused my efforts.

Food and health wise, am eating well, mostly veges, cereals, fruits, nuts, fish and water. I do on a weekly occasion treat myself to something guilty : P.

On the personl side, I'm happy to announce to the world that I've finally found my soul mate Cici, a partner who I can enjoy all of life's beautiful offerings with.